Trump, the Eastern Mediterranean, and the Future of Greece

A Geopolitical Crossroads

As global politics enters a new era, Greece finds itself in the eye of a geopolitical storm brewing across the Eastern Mediterranean. With Donald Trump’s return to the White House now a political reality, traditional diplomatic norms are being discarded at an unprecedented pace. The implications for a small but strategically vital nation like Greece are profound.

The return of the “America First” doctrine under a second Trump presidency marks a fundamental shift in the United States’ approach to global affairs—one that threatens to disrupt long-standing alliances, upend regional balances, and plunge Greece into a new era of uncertainty. Yet amid these perils lie real opportunities—provided Athens plays its hand with caution, clarity, and strategic foresight.

A Vacuum at the Heart of Diplomacy

Perhaps the most pressing concern for Greece is its growing diplomatic isolation. At a time of rapid change in Washington, the Greek government faces a crucial deficit—there is no permanent U.S. ambassador stationed in Athens. Though reports have surfaced that a figure such as Kimberly Guilfoyle has been nominated, there has been no formal confirmation nor arrival in the Greek capital.

This absence creates a vacuum at precisely the wrong time. Greece’s voice in Washington is effectively muted, with no direct advocate to communicate its priorities, explain its position, or counter opposing narratives. In a political environment dominated by transactional deal-making, such silence can be fatal.

Contrast this with Turkey’s diplomatic apparatus. Trump ally and close confidant Tom Barrack is reportedly operating in Ankara, pushing Turkey’s interests with access and influence few can match. Barrack’s influence reaches across sensitive areas, from Turkey’s military activity in Syria to its aggressive energy agenda in the Eastern Mediterranean. This creates a stark imbalance in representation—one that leaves Greece increasingly vulnerable.

The Shadow of Past Frictions

Compounding this imbalance are lingering political resentments. During the previous U.S. election cycle, segments of the Greek political establishment, including ministers and high-profile officials, were vocal in their support for Kamala Harris and the Democrats. While diplomatically routine, these gestures may now carry consequences in a White House shaped by personal loyalty and retribution.

Trump’s decision-making style often rewards personal relationships and punishes perceived disloyalty. With few political debts owed to Greece—and a preference for rewarding those who backed him—there’s a real risk that Greece may be deprioritised, while Turkey, with its aggressive diplomatic lobbying and strategic utility, may gain further favour.

Risks on the Economic Front

The economic outlook under a renewed Trump presidency is equally turbulent. Greece, like many European countries, benefited from relatively stable trade conditions under previous administrations. However, Trump’s emphasis on protectionism, tariffs, and trade renegotiation could significantly disrupt this status quo.

Indeed, the Foundation of Economic and Industrial Research (IOBE) has already revised Greece’s projected GDP growth for 2025 from 2.4% to 2.2%, citing anticipated U.S. tariffs on European goods as a contributing factor. While the decline may seem modest, the implications are far-reaching. Increased tariffs on steel and aluminium, for example, would ripple through key Greek sectors—particularly shipping, construction, and manufacturing.

Moreover, uncertainty itself has economic costs. Investor confidence is fragile, and Trump’s unpredictable approach to foreign relations could make Greece a less attractive destination for external capital, just as it seeks to cement its post-crisis recovery.

Yet, not all the signs are negative. Trump’s transactional worldview, while chaotic, creates opportunities for nations that can align themselves with U.S. economic interests. Greece’s burgeoning energy sector offers precisely that chance.

Energy as Leverage: The Power Beneath the Waves

One of the most significant geopolitical shifts in recent years is the emergence of the Eastern Mediterranean as an energy hotspot. Greece is at the heart of this transformation, with vast untapped reserves of natural gas off the coast of Crete drawing attention from global energy giants—including ExxonMobil and Chevron.

These investments are not incidental. They align squarely with Trump’s “America First” ethos, providing lucrative returns for American corporations while supporting U.S. energy independence and reducing reliance on Middle Eastern and Russian supplies.

In this context, Greece becomes far more than a small regional ally. It transforms into a key energy partner, with the potential to play a decisive role in American foreign energy strategy. These gas exploration projects create a compelling narrative for Athens to present to Washington: supporting Greece is not just a matter of alliance—it is a strategic economic imperative.

Furthermore, this economic alignment also serves a dual political purpose. As Turkey pursues its own maritime claims—often aggressively and in direct contradiction to international law—Greece’s cooperation with U.S. firms offers Washington a counterweight to Turkish expansionism.

The Military Balance: Eroding or Enduring?

In the realm of defence, the risks of a Trump presidency are especially acute. Trump’s well-publicised rapport with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan continues to influence U.S.-Turkey relations in unpredictable ways.

During his previous term, Trump resisted pressure to enforce key military sanctions against Turkey for its purchase of the Russian S-400 missile system—a move that had sparked outrage within NATO and among U.S. lawmakers. The sanctions, imposed under the Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act (CAATSA), were eventually applied but only under significant pressure.

Now, there is growing concern that Trump could move to lift these sanctions—despite the legal constraints imposed by CAATSA and the National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA). Such a move would not only rehabilitate Turkey’s military standing but potentially open the door for Ankara to rejoin the F-35 fighter jet programme and acquire advanced U.S. weaponry.

This would represent a seismic shift in the military balance of the region. Turkey’s access to cutting-edge systems would undermine Greece’s traditional aerial superiority and embolden Ankara in its territorial disputes in the Aegean and Eastern Mediterranean.

Yet, here too Greece holds significant cards. The U.S. maintains some of its most strategically important military bases on Greek soil. Chief among them is Souda Bay in Crete, the only deep-water port in the Mediterranean capable of servicing American aircraft carriers. Larissa and Alexandroupolis also serve as key logistics and intelligence hubs, vital for NATO operations across Europe and the Middle East.

These bases make Greece indispensable to U.S. regional strategy. Their continued access and security cannot be guaranteed without a stable and cooperative Athens. In this sense, Greece’s military utility may serve as its greatest shield against marginalisation.

Building New Alliances Beyond the Atlantic

Recognising the volatility of U.S. politics, Greece has not remained idle. The Greek government has pursued a multifaceted strategy of alliance-building to reduce its reliance on any one partner, especially in light of Trump’s unpredictability.

One key axis of this new strategy is Israel. In June 2025, Greece and Israel signed a significant Memorandum of Understanding for the BlueWhale submarine drone system, designed to enhance maritime surveillance and mine countermeasure capabilities. This partnership reflects a growing military alliance between the two nations—one that is already reshaping security dynamics in the region.

The Israel-Greece defence partnership is not limited to technology. It includes regular joint military exercises, intelligence-sharing, and arms sales, as both countries seek to check Turkey’s ambitions and cement a security corridor across the Mediterranean.

Another burgeoning relationship is with Saudi Arabia. Greece has deepened diplomatic and defence ties with Riyadh, recognising the Gulf as a vital partner in regional security and energy cooperation. This eastward shift in Greek diplomacy reflects a pragmatic effort to diversify its strategic options and cultivate influence beyond the EU and NATO frameworks.

A Fortress of Sovereignty: Greece’s Defence Modernisation Programme

These alliances are being backed by action. The Greek government has announced a €25 billion, 12-year defence modernisation programme—the largest in the nation’s recent history.

This includes the acquisition of F-35 fighter jets, the deployment of the “Achilles Shield” air defence system, advanced drone technology, and modern naval vessels. The scale of investment signals a clear message: Greece is preparing not only to defend its sovereignty but to assert its position as a regional military power in its own right.

These moves are not merely symbolic. In an era where alliances can no longer be taken for granted, Greece is building the capacity to protect its interests unilaterally if necessary. This strategic autonomy is a direct response to the uncertainties of American foreign policy and the real threat of Turkish aggression.

Diplomacy in Motion: Engagement Amid Absence

Despite the absence of a U.S. ambassador in Athens, Greek diplomacy continues to push forward. In February 2025, Foreign Minister Giorgos Gerapetritis held direct talks with U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio in Washington. These engagements are crucial, allowing Greece to communicate its concerns and aspirations directly to key American stakeholders.

Such diplomacy is even more important given the current ambiguity in the U.S. approach to the Eastern Mediterranean. With American policy seemingly adrift and Turkey pushing hard for influence, Greece must ensure that its narrative is heard, its partnerships reinforced, and its security concerns acknowledged.

The Turkish Gamble: A Game of Deception

Turkey’s dualistic foreign policy poses another challenge. While remaining a member of NATO, Ankara continues to cultivate close ties with Iran, support Hamas, and engage in highly contentious energy and military initiatives. These actions place it at odds with Israel, and by extension, with the United States.

Greece can—and should—exploit this contradiction. By positioning itself as a trustworthy, stable partner aligned with Western values, Athens can cast doubt on Turkey’s reliability and strategic coherence.

Moreover, recent events underscore the volatility of alliances in the region. Reports suggest that the U.S. and Israel coordinated a surprise strike on Iranian infrastructure, despite public signals of discord between Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Such episodes reveal the complexity and duplicity of contemporary geopolitics—a reality that Greece must navigate with care.

Turning Transaction into Partnership

Trump’s approach to international relations is often defined by the immediate, the transactional, and the theatrical. But Greece has tools it can use to translate this short-termism into long-term benefit.

Athens should consider inviting Trump-aligned think tanks to the region, promoting the success of ExxonMobil and Chevron’s investments as a win for “America First,” and even proposing high-level engagements such as a presidential visit. These efforts, while symbolic on the surface, could be instrumental in locking in U.S. support during a period of global flux.

Crucially, Greece must emphasise how its strategic goals align with American interests—from energy security to counterterrorism, from military bases to regional stability. The message must be clear: Greece is not a burden, but a bulwark.

The EU Factor: A Call for Continental Independence

Trump’s confrontational stance on NATO and his erratic policy on Ukraine have already sparked alarm across European capitals. For Greece, these developments reinforce the need for the EU to develop greater strategic autonomy.

Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis has been vocal in calling for Europe to “wake up” and invest in its own defence capabilities. This reflects a growing consensus in Athens that the European security architecture must no longer rely so heavily on the whims of Washington.

By strengthening EU-based defence cooperation and participating in joint strategic initiatives, Greece can hedge against U.S. disengagement while also reinforcing its own regional credibility.

Conclusion: A Nation at the Crossroads

Greece stands at a pivotal moment in its modern history. Faced with the reassertion of American isolationism, the growing influence of Turkey, and a fragile global order, Athens must chart a course defined by strategic clarity and diplomatic ingenuity.

With no U.S. ambassador in Athens, economic turbulence on the horizon, and shifting military dynamics, the risks are undeniable. Yet Greece is not without leverage. Strategic energy projects, irreplaceable military bases, and a network of emerging alliances offer Athens powerful tools to reshape its future.

This is no time for hesitation. Greece must act boldly—strengthening ties where possible, asserting independence where necessary, and always keeping its long-term sovereignty in focus. In a region where power is fluid and alliances are fleeting, Greece has the chance not merely to survive the storm—but to lead within it.