EU planning to expand into Ukraine
Access Would Provide Economic Boost to War-Torn Country on Path to Bloc Membership
Ursula von der Leyen is preparing to push European Union regulations to their “breaking point” to provide Ukraine with privileged access to the bloc’s Single Market as a component of a final peace agreement, The Telegraph can exclusively reveal.
The lucrative access to a market comprising 449 million consumers would deliver a desperately needed economic boost to assist in rebuilding the war-ravaged nation, which currently holds candidate country status for EU membership.
Under the proposed scheme, Brussels would selectively determine which sectors to open to Kyiv and which to maintain as restricted. This approach represents a significant policy shift for the European Commission.
Central to the strategy is Ukraine’s flourishing defence industry, which is currently producing substantial quantities of cutting-edge drone technology and provides approximately 55 per cent of the weaponry utilised by its armed forces.
Tariff-free access for Ukrainian armaments would generate crucial revenue for Kyiv, whilst simultaneously enhancing the military capabilities of EU member states that are urgently seeking to increase defence expenditure and manufacturing capacity in response to regional security concerns.
At a summit convened in Brussels on Thursday, EU leaders endorsed a comprehensive plan to mobilise €800 billion in defence investment, signalling their commitment to strengthening European security infrastructure.
During previous Brexit negotiations, Brussels had cautioned Britain against attempting to “cherry pick” access to the Single Market without accepting the full obligations associated with EU membership, such as freedom of movement for citizens. This apparent policy reversal for Ukraine indicates the strategic importance Brussels places on supporting the embattled nation.
“It’s already progressing in that direction,” a senior EU official disclosed to The Telegraph, when questioned whether the European Commission president was prepared to extend EU regulations to their limit for Ukraine’s benefit.
Ideally, these proposals would constitute the EU’s contribution to a final peace settlement; however, they are not contingent upon an agreement being reached, as the exchange of Single Market access for armaments will accelerate Ukraine’s eventual integration into the bloc.
One EU diplomat pointedly observed that Ukraine’s objective was to join the EU rather than leave it, and that former US President Donald Trump’s initiation of peace discussions with Russia without Kyiv’s involvement meant the “world had changed” with respect to geopolitical realities.
“Cherry-picking in this context is acceptable, provided we are the ones determining which cherries are to be picked,” the diplomat remarked, before predicting that the initiative would receive favourable responses from the majority of member states.
“In the defence sector, Ukraine has substantial contributions to make. The integration of its highly innovative and thriving defence industry, with its demonstrated capacity to scale production, could serve as a catalyst for a significantly more integrated European defence market,” stated Marta Kos, the EU’s commissioner for enlargement.
“We are additionally developing strategies to accelerate Ukraine’s integration into numerous additional segments of the Single Market – to attract increased investment, to strengthen Europe-wide value chains, and to create new opportunities for both Ukrainian and European enterprises. This will function as a stepping stone to expedite the reconstruction of Ukraine,” she elaborated in a speech delivered this week.
The bloc has already implemented measures to connect Ukraine’s electricity market to the EU grid and will pursue deeper integration across the broader energy market, ensuring greater stability and security in Europe’s energy supply.
Opening Ukraine’s services sector to European markets has been actively considered, with Kyiv representing a significant exporter of IT services and products, boasting the largest concentration of outsourced developers in Eastern Europe. This could potentially transform the digital landscape across the continent, creating new opportunities for collaboration and innovation.
Ukrainian agricultural exports were granted tariff-free status following the Russian invasion, providing a vital economic lifeline for the country’s farming sector. However, extending the EU’s comprehensive agricultural subsidies to Ukraine is understood to be excluded from current discussions, primarily due to budgetary constraints and concerns from existing agricultural powerhouses within the bloc.
Brussels has also extended mobile phone roaming privileges without additional charges for Ukrainians who have been displaced, eliminating extra costs for those who fled to other European countries. This measure has proven particularly beneficial for maintaining communication networks for refugees scattered across the continent.
Ukrainian citizens already benefit from a form of freedom of movement within the EU, thanks to regulations granting them temporary protection status. These provisions enable the approximately four million Ukrainians who have sought refuge to enjoy residence rights, educational access for children, and labour market opportunities without the requirement to apply for asylum through conventional channels.
Nevertheless, EU officials have emphasised that assessments of Ukraine’s progress towards full membership would remain entirely merit-based, adhering to the established criteria for accession. This assurance aims to maintain the integrity of the accession process while acknowledging Ukraine’s unique circumstances.
Joining the European Union entails a lengthy and challenging process, requiring candidate countries to adopt extensive portions of European legislation and frequently embark upon difficult structural reforms to align their governance, economic, and legal systems with EU standards.
Forecasting the timeline for a country’s accession is notoriously difficult. Albania, for instance, has been awaiting membership for more than a decade and maintains hopes of being granted entry by 2030, despite significant progress in meeting accession criteria.
Ukraine has expressed aspirations to achieve membership by 2028, but experts and officials describe this timeline as unrealistic given the comprehensive nature of required reforms and the current state of conflict. In the interim, Brussels is exploring avenues to extend as many membership benefits to Kyiv as legally permissible, creating a pathway for gradual integration.
However, this preferential approach carries the risk of causing discontent among other candidate countries, particularly those in the Western Balkans, who have not received comparable treatment despite years of pursuing accession. Countries such as North Macedonia, Montenegro, and Serbia have expressed concerns about perceived double standards in the accession process.
The European Commission must therefore balance its strategic support for Ukraine with maintaining credible enlargement policies for all candidate countries, ensuring that exceptional measures for Ukraine do not undermine the broader integrity of the EU’s expansion framework. This delicate balancing act will test the EU’s diplomatic abilities as it navigates competing priorities and historical commitments.
As the conflict in Ukraine continues, the EU’s approach represents an innovative attempt to provide tangible support without compromising its fundamental principles. By selectively opening specific sectors of the Single Market, Brussels hopes to deliver immediate economic benefits while maintaining the incentive structure for comprehensive reforms required for full membership.
The success of this strategy will ultimately depend on its implementation details, the response from other candidate countries, and Ukraine’s ability to capitalise on the opportunities presented while continuing to progress toward meeting all membership criteria.
Comment
This is utter madness, once again the EU is demonstrating that it continues to use expansion as a method for survival, regardless of the consequences to existing members, not to mention that fact that this is yet another provocation of Russia.
Crops from Ukraine, which are not subject to the same regulations as EU crops, have been undercutting farmers within Europe and putting them out of business, but the EU is not concerned, as long as they are able to expand their unelected club and draw more countries into their calculated clutches.