Britain’s Surging Crime Rate

Myth or Reality?

Over the past few years, crime has once again become a dominant topic in public debate. Media headlines scream of soaring violence, shoplifting epidemics, and a criminal justice system struggling to cope. At the same time, certain official statistics paint a very different picture, suggesting crime rates have fallen dramatically over the last few decades. So, which story is true? Are Britain’s streets more dangerous than ever, or are we being misled by perception and selective reporting?

One of the most striking recent trends has been the explosion in recorded shoplifting incidents. In just the last four years, the number of reported shoplifting cases in England and Wales has more than doubled. Even this worrying figure, however, underplays the true scale of the problem. Official police records only account for a fraction of thefts, because the vast majority go unreported. Estimates suggest that in 2024 there were around 20 million incidents of shoplifting across the two nations. Yet, astonishingly, this mountain of theft resulted in just 31,000 prosecutions – barely scratching the surface of the real volume of crime.

That works out to roughly 1,000 shoplifting offences every single day somewhere in Britain. CCTV footage regularly circulates online and in the press showing brazen thieves helping themselves to goods in supermarkets and corner shops, often in broad daylight, before casually strolling out of the door. For many retailers, it has reached the point where even calling the police seems futile.

Compared with 2014, shoplifting has increased five-fold, and police forces appear increasingly powerless to stop what is now widely seen as a wave of organised retail crime. Faced with mounting losses, shops have had to take costly measures such as hiring private security guards, installing more sophisticated CCTV systems, and even placing security tags on everyday items such as cheese, milk, and baby food.

But shoplifting is only part of the story. Knife crime, too, has been climbing at an alarming rate. Offences involving blades have nearly doubled in recent years, and courts have handed down significantly longer sentences for possession of a knife. Yet, here is where things get complicated: according to the Crime Survey for England and Wales – the most widely used measure of crime – the overall level of “victim-based” crime has actually fallen sharply over the last thirty years, dropping from around 12 million incidents annually in the early 1990s to about 4 million today.

It is important to note that this survey does not rely on police data. Instead, it is based on responses from a large sample of households, who are asked whether they have experienced crime in the previous year. Crucially, the survey excludes non-victim crimes such as shoplifting, where the ‘victim’ is a business rather than an individual. Police statistics on reported offences tell a slightly different story: overall recorded crime has crept upwards since 2015, though it remains lower than it was in 2004. However, these figures have their own limitations, not least the fact that they exclude unreported crimes and can be influenced by changes in reporting methods or police priorities.

This raises a fundamental question: which statistics should we believe? Are we in the grip of a new crime wave, or are we actually safer than we were a generation ago?

The suspicion that crime is spiralling out of control is nothing new. In fact, almost exactly the same sentiment was expressed over forty years ago by then Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher, who in 1982 warned of increasing violence on the streets and rising crime figures. Her concerns were not unfounded. In the early 1980s, by several key measures, crime was indeed worse than it is today.

From the late 1970s through the 1980s, crime rose steeply, reaching a peak in the early 1990s. Offences such as burglary, car theft, and violent assaults were far more common than they are now. This downward trend since the 1990s is not unique to the UK – it has been mirrored in many other developed nations, suggesting that broader social, economic, and technological changes are at play.

Still, many members of the public remain sceptical of official crime statistics, and for understandable reasons. For one, crime reporting is inconsistent. The Crime Survey for England and Wales reveals that only around a quarter of incidents of what it calls “headline crime” are actually reported to the police. When asked why they didn’t report an offence, many respondents said they doubted the police could do anything, or suspected they wouldn’t bother trying. Unfortunately, there is some evidence to support this cynicism: while some crime rates may be falling, the proportion of offences resulting in a charge has dropped significantly – from around 15% a decade ago to just 7% in 2024.

Part of the reason lies in the changing nature of crime. Traditional offences like opportunistic burglary, car theft, and bank robberies have become less common, in part because of better security technology. But in their place, we have seen the rise of highly organised criminal enterprises. Shoplifting gangs and mobile phone theft rings often operate with a level of coordination that would rival a small business. Stolen goods are quickly moved along sophisticated supply chains, often crossing borders before being sold on in other countries. The era of the petty, localised thief selling goods in a pub has given way to professionalised networks exploiting both physical and digital opportunities.

Fraud, for example, has risen by around 65% in recent years. The internet has enabled scammers to target victims on a massive scale, often from overseas jurisdictions that make prosecution all but impossible. Falling conviction rates are partly explained by this new landscape. Proving a modern case often requires extensive, multi-layered evidence – far more than the simple testimony of a police officer who witnessed an act.

Another factor is the sharp rise in the reporting of sexual offences. More people are willing to come forward today than in previous decades, a positive development in terms of breaking the silence around such crimes. However, these cases have always had low charge rates – currently around 4.2% – because of the evidential challenges involved.

So, if many crimes are in decline, why do so many of us feel that crime is getting worse? Surveys show an interesting pattern: while 70% of people in 2024 believed crime was rising nationally, only 36% thought it was increasing in their own local area. Our perceptions of our immediate surroundings are shaped largely by personal experience, whereas our sense of the national picture is heavily influenced by media and social media coverage. Sensational headlines and viral videos can magnify our fears, even if the underlying risk is relatively low.

Of course, personal experience still matters enormously. If you’ve had your phone snatched in broad daylight, you are unlikely to be reassured by statistics showing that carjacking is down 80% since 1990. Crime is, after all, deeply personal when it happens to you.

This interplay between perception and reality has long been a feature of British life. In the 1980s, football hooliganism was a genuine problem, and many parents refused to let their children attend matches for fear of violence. The transformation since then has been remarkable; the large-scale brawls and unsafe stadiums of the past have been replaced by relatively orderly crowds, at least in the top leagues. Ironically, today’s complaint is more likely to be about the cost of Premier League tickets than the danger of going to a match.

Personal experience can also puncture stereotypes. For instance, certain housing estates have been given fearsome reputations in the press, only for those who live or work there to find them far less threatening in reality. Media coverage of “joyriding capitals” often bore little resemblance to the everyday lives of most residents.

When it comes to car crime, the data is clear: whether you use police records or survey evidence, thefts have fallen dramatically. Modern cars are far harder to steal than those of the past, and many would-be criminals are perhaps content to act out their fantasies in video games rather than risk arrest.

One question that often arises in debates about crime is this: if rates are falling, why is the prison population at record highs? Britain now has one of the highest incarceration rates in Europe. The answer lies in three main factors. First, sentencing guidelines have changed, leading to longer prison terms – in some cases, serious offences now carry sentences between 38% and 80% longer than in 2008. Second, there has been a rise in the number of prisoners on remand, reflecting severe backlogs in the criminal courts. Third, more offenders released on parole are being recalled to prison.

Interestingly, the number of people given an immediate custodial sentence has actually fallen over the last decade, from 98,000 in 2012 to 67,000 in 2022. Nevertheless, because those who are jailed are serving longer sentences, the total prison population continues to grow. Some argue that this extended incapacitation may have contributed to the fall in certain crime rates, though it is difficult to prove causation.

Another measure of crime is found not in police statistics but in hospital records. Admissions for assault among under-17s have risen in recent years, and the number of young people killed in knife attacks has jumped by 141% since 2013. Yet, across the population as a whole, the number of assault-related hospital admissions has fallen sharply – from around 45,000 a year to 20,000. Homicide rates, too, are relatively low by historical standards, comparable to the 1970s and significantly below their mid-2000s peak.

Public perceptions of safety have also improved in some respects. In 1995, only 45% of women surveyed said they felt safe walking alone after dark; by 2025, that figure had risen to 68%. The change is not uniform, however, and survey sizes have shrunk over the years, making direct comparisons less reliable.

So, what does all this tell us? The reality is complex. Certain types of crime, particularly property offences and some categories of violence, are indeed lower than in the late 20th century. Advances in security technology, targeted policing, and demographic changes have all played a role. At the same time, there are genuine areas of concern – notably, rising violence among young people, the epidemic of shoplifting, and the growing impact of fraud and cybercrime.

Confidence in the police has declined, partly because falling conviction rates make the public feel offenders are not being brought to justice. And while your chances of being burgled may be lower today, you may still pay more for groceries because retailers are passing on the costs of theft.

Ultimately, the question “Is crime rising or falling?” does not have a single, definitive answer. It depends on which crimes you measure, over what time period, and how you interpret the data. Compared with the 1990s, overall crime is lower, but Britain is far from a haven of safety and order. Politicians and commentators can cherry-pick whichever statistics best support their argument – a reminder that numbers, while useful, rarely tell the whole story.