Is Europe About to Break Up Like Brexit?

The European Union (EU) stands at a critical crossroads in 2025. Almost a decade after the United Kingdom’s momentous decision to leave, the question of whether other member states might follow looms large. The rise of Eurosceptic parties across the continent, coupled with economic strains, cultural disputes, and political discontent, has brought the possibility of further fragmentation into mainstream debate. Could Europe be heading towards another Brexit-style rupture—or even multiple exits?

A Surge of Eurosceptic Power

The 2024 European Parliament elections revealed a dramatic shift in the continent’s political landscape. Nationalist and far-right parties made substantial gains, consolidating into a formidable bloc. The Patriots group, a new alliance of hard-right parties, surged to become the third largest force in the European Parliament, holding 84 Members of the European Parliament (MEPs).

Once dismissed as fringe movements, these parties are no longer confined to the margins. They now sit at the heart of power, shaping coalitions in at least seven EU countries. From Germany’s Alternative für Deutschland and France’s Rassemblement National, to Austria’s Freedom Party and Italy’s Brothers of Italy under Giorgia Meloni, the nationalist wave is sweeping across the continent.

What unites these movements is not only a conservative worldview but also an increasingly vocal scepticism of EU membership itself. Their rise reflects growing frustration with Brussels and rekindles memories of the discontent that drove Britain towards Brexit.

The Economic Strains Behind the Discontent

Economic disillusionment has provided fertile ground for Euroscepticism. The European economy has not fully recovered from the aftershocks of the COVID-19 pandemic. While northern states such as Germany and the Netherlands bounced back swiftly, southern economies, including Spain and Greece, remain burdened with high youth unemployment and sluggish growth.

Eastern European nations, such as Romania and Bulgaria, continue to lose young talent to the West, creating a demographic imbalance. Added to this is the energy crisis triggered by the war in Ukraine and Europe’s difficult transition away from Russian gas.

The uneven recovery has fuelled a sense of unfairness. Citizens in wealthier nations resent paying for subsidies to support struggling economies, while those in poorer regions feel abandoned by EU policies that seem slow to deliver tangible benefits. This economic fatigue has weakened the perception of the EU as a reliable engine of prosperity.

The Question of Sovereignty

Beyond economics lies the deeper issue of sovereignty. Many member states bristle at what they perceive as excessive interference from Brussels. EU attempts to enforce uniform policies on migration, energy, and digital regulation have been met with resistance.

Hungary and Poland, in particular, have been locked in prolonged disputes with EU institutions over rule of law concerns and judicial independence. Leaders such as Viktor Orbán have painted Brussels as a threat to national identity, framing the union as a domineering bureaucracy rather than a partnership of equals.

This framing resonates with voters who feel their culture and traditions are being eroded under the banner of European integration. The resentment is not merely rhetorical; it is reshaping national politics across the continent.

Lessons from Brexit

When Britain voted to leave the EU in 2016 and formally departed in 2020, the shockwaves reverberated far beyond London. For the EU, Brexit was a political and economic stress test.

Initially, Brussels responded with unity, determined to demonstrate that no member could secure a better deal outside than inside. Negotiations were drawn out, fraught with disputes over trade rules, fishing rights, and the Northern Ireland Protocol. Ultimately, the EU prioritised cohesion over accommodating British demands.

The consequences for the UK were severe. Between 2016 and 2022, the British economy is estimated to have lost around £100 billion in output due to reduced trade and investment uncertainty. London’s financial hub ceded ground to Paris and Frankfurt, while exporters faced complex customs barriers.

Yet, paradoxically, Brexit has not deterred Euroscepticism. For many nationalist parties, it proved that leaving is possible, even if costly. Leaders such as Marine Le Pen in France and Matteo Salvini in Italy have cited Brexit as inspiration, arguing that political independence is worth short-term economic pain.

Shifts Across the Continent

The EU’s internal tensions are now visible in multiple countries:

Hungary

Hungary has been in a protracted clash with Brussels since 2020. Article 7 proceedings, the EU’s so-called “nuclear option” for sanctioning states that undermine democratic values, were triggered in response to concerns over judicial independence and media freedom. Nearly half of Hungarians say they want a direct say in their country’s future relationship with the EU, fuelling speculation about a potential “Huxit”.

Poland

Poland’s Law and Justice Party, though no longer in government, continues to wield influence. Conflicts with the EU over judicial reforms and climate policy have already cost Poland billions in suspended funds. A grassroots movement calling for “Polexit” has begun to gather signatures, reflecting growing unease even among younger generations once seen as firmly pro-European.

Italy

Italy presents a more complex picture. On one hand, it remains heavily reliant on EU recovery funds; on the other, frustration runs deep. Italians resent EU bureaucracy, limitations on fishing rights, and the constraints of Eurozone membership. Opinion polls suggest that around one-third of Italians believe EU policies harm national growth, raising the prospect of an eventual referendum on membership.

France

In France, “Frexit” has moved from the political fringes to mainstream debate. The Rassemblement National achieved 30% in the European elections, capitalising on anger at EU agricultural policies and rising living costs. Although President Emmanuel Macron remains a staunch pro-European, his declining popularity leaves space for nationalist voices to gain ground.

The Netherlands

The Dutch, long one of the EU’s strongest contributors, are beginning to question the financial burden of membership. Populist parties argue that solidarity has become one-sided, with Dutch taxpayers funding southern Europe while receiving little in return. This dissatisfaction has created fertile ground for the “Nexit” debate.

Structural Divides: North vs South, East vs West

The EU’s internal strains are not merely political—they are structural.

Northern Europe enjoys robust economies, low unemployment, and strong industrial output. In contrast, southern states remain reliant on tourism, vulnerable to external shocks, and weighed down by debt. This imbalance breeds resentment on both sides: northerners question why they must subsidise weaker economies, while southerners lament their lack of progress despite promises of stability.

Migration is another fault line. Frontline states such as Italy and Greece bear the brunt of refugee inflows, while inland countries experience fewer direct effects. Efforts to impose relocation quotas have largely failed, fuelling perceptions of unfairness.

Cultural clashes further complicate the picture. Eastern states such as Poland and Hungary frequently resist EU directives on judicial reform and LGBTQ+ rights, portraying them as assaults on national traditions. For many voters, these disputes symbolise an EU that is culturally intrusive as well as politically overbearing.

Institutional Weaknesses

The EU’s institutional framework also contributes to its fragility. Decision-making is often slow, requiring unanimity among member states. This was evident during the energy crisis following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, when it took nearly a year to agree on a joint energy strategy. In the meantime, national governments acted unilaterally, undermining the appearance of unity.

The lack of a centralised finance ministry within the Eurozone hampers coordinated responses to economic shocks. Instead, piecemeal mechanisms such as the European Stability Mechanism are relied upon, often leaving citizens frustrated by delays and indecision.

These weaknesses highlight the paradox at the heart of the EU: it is too centralised for some members, yet not centralised enough to act effectively in times of crisis.

What Holds the Union Together?

Despite the tensions, the EU retains powerful unifying forces.

The single market allows nearly 450 million citizens to trade freely across 27 countries, lowering prices and securing jobs. Cohesion funds distribute billions to poorer regions, supporting infrastructure, education, and agriculture. Shared climate targets, such as reducing emissions by 55% by 2030, give the bloc a common mission.

Security cooperation, from intelligence sharing to joint defence spending, also binds the union together. The EU’s defence budget surpassed €200 billion in 2022, strengthening its contribution to NATO and bolstering collective security.

These benefits serve as a counterweight to nationalist rhetoric, reminding citizens of the tangible advantages of membership.

What If the EU Fractures?

Speculating about an EU break-up may once have seemed alarmist, but it is now a subject of serious debate. If countries were to leave, the consequences would be profound.

Legal chaos would ensue as decades of shared laws unravelled. Customs checks would return, disrupting trade. Economically, the departure of a major economy such as Italy could destabilise the euro, triggering wider financial contagion. Defence cooperation would suffer, undermining NATO’s eastern flank.

Perhaps most significantly, the sense of European identity—nurtured through programmes such as Erasmus and free movement—would be eroded. Generations of young Europeans, accustomed to seamless borders, would suddenly face barriers where none existed before.

The EU might not collapse overnight, but its very purpose would be called into question.

The Road Ahead

Europe is not yet on the brink of collapse, but the forces of disintegration are real. Brexit was once unthinkable, yet it happened. Now, dissatisfaction simmers in multiple member states, raising the possibility of future exits or at least attempts to renegotiate terms of membership.

The EU faces a choice: reform itself to address economic disparities, migration pressures, and cultural divides, or risk watching its cohesion slowly unravel. The cracks may be small today, but they could become fault lines tomorrow.

The ultimate question is not whether another country will leave, but whether the EU can adapt fast enough to prevent it.