Reform share of vote in Blackpool up by 277%

The Conservatives suffered a stinging defeat in the Blackpool South by-election, narrowly edging out the Reform UK party by a mere 117 votes to secure second place. Labour’s Chris Webb secured a resounding victory, amassing 10,825 votes and a commanding majority of 7,607, which equates to 58.9% of the total votes cast.

This by-election result has been dubbed “a seismic win” by Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer, with the swing from the Conservatives to Labour standing at an astonishing 26%, the third-largest since the Second World War. Such a substantial swing far exceeds the 12.5% figure that Labour sources suggest would be necessary to secure victory in a general election.

Reform UK, led by Richard Tice, achieved an unprecedented 16.9% of the vote share, their highest ever result, and came agonisingly close to ousting the Conservatives from second place. Tice hailed the performance as “onwards and upwards” for his party, which has steadily gained ground in opinion polls over the past year.

Mark Butcher, Reform UK’s candidate, described his party’s vote share as “incredible” and vowed to contest the seat again at the next general election, asserting that they had “made a massive statement” and “done more than give the Conservatives a bloody nose.”

In contrast, the Conservative candidate, David Jones, declined to answer questions as he left the Blackpool Sports Centre after the result was announced at 4:50 am, following a turnout of just 32.5%.

Sir Keir Starmer lauded the victory as “the most important result today,” emphasising that it represented a direct message from voters to Prime Minister Rishi Sunak’s Conservative government, demanding change. “The people of Blackpool South had spoken for Britain,” proclaimed the victorious Webb, who will succeed the former Tory MP Scott Benton, who resigned earlier this year amidst a lobbying scandal.

Webb lambasted the Conservatives, asserting that the British people had lost trust in the party after 14 years in power. “They have had enough of this failed government,” he declared, calling on Sunak to “admit you’ve failed and call a general election.”

The dismal performance by the Conservatives has only exacerbated the simmering discontent within the party’s ranks. David Campbell Bannerman, a prominent figure on the Conservative Right, warned that Sunak’s leadership would be untenable if Reform UK had surpassed the Conservatives for second place, stating, “With the right Conservative leader and true Tory policies, Conservatives can be transformed. Watch this space.”

Professor Sir John Curtice, a renowned elections expert, highlighted the gravity of the situation for the Conservatives, asserting, “The only thing that’s stopped this result from being basically an unmitigated disaster for the Conservatives was the fact they just narrowly squeaked ahead of Reform.” He added a sobering assessment: “Basically, the project that Rishi Sunak is meant to be there to achieve, which is to narrow the gap on Labour, that project still has yet to provide any visible benefit.”

The Blackpool South by-election has undoubtedly sent shockwaves through the political landscape, with Labour basking in a decisive victory and the Conservatives facing mounting pressure and internal turmoil. The surge of support for Reform UK, a relatively new political force, has added an intriguing dynamic to the electoral landscape, potentially disrupting the traditional two-party dominance.

As the nation grapples with the implications of this seismic result, the spotlight will inevitably shift towards the next general election, where the true test of the respective parties’ fortunes will unfold. For the Conservatives, the challenges are mounting, and the need for decisive action and a convincing narrative to regain voter trust has never been more pressing.

The results compared to the last election

THE FIGURES SPEAK FOR THEMSELVES

Conservatives DOWN 65%

Labour UP 53%

Reform UP 277%